71st Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association
What do we learn about politics between Russia’s federal center and its regions from examining governors’ tenures during the period of Kremlin control? We use survival analysis of data from all of Russia’s regions from 2005-2012 to estimate the factors influencing when a governor is replaced, including the region’s size and ethnic composition, the governor’s age, and aspects of the governor’s administrative and political performance. We find that the Kremlin targeted its replacements on governors who could not deliver pro-Kremlin votes in federal elections. Yet this tool of political control over the regional leaderships did not prevent the weak showing of the Kremlin’s party in the 2011 legislative election or the mediocre showing of Putin in the 2012 presidential election. The appointment era now looks more like a failed experiment than an inexorable tightening of authoritarian control over the country.
Copyright © 2013 William M Reisinger and Bryon J Moraski