PS: Political Science & Politics
One autumn out of four, election forecasting surpasses baseball as America's national pastime. Then, everyone wants to know who will win, and everyone has a guess. Now, with the ballots carefully counted, forecasters await their awards. Below, I evaluate the quality of a wide range of 1984 presidential and congressional forecasts. The evaluation proceeds from nonscientific to scientific approaches, although this distinction is sometimes blurred. To lower the level of suspense, I should say that some forecasts turned out to be quite good. By way of conclusion, I offer a set of rules for selecting a high-quality forecasting instrument.
Published Article/Book Citation
PS: Political Science & Politics, 18:1 (1985) pp. 53-62.
Copyright 1985 American Political Science Association. Used by permission. http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=PSC