Document Type
Article
Peer Reviewed
1
Publication Date
10-2008
Journal/Book/Conference Title
PS: Political Science & Politics
Volume
41
Abstract
The statistical modelers are back. The presidential election forecasting errors of 2000 did not repeat themselves in 2004. On the contrary, the forecasts, from at least seven different teams, were generally quite accurate (Campbell 2004; Lewis-Beck 2005). Encouragingly, their prowess is receiving attention from forecasters outside the social sciences, in fields such as engineering and commerce. Noteworthy here is the recent special issue on U.S. presidential election forecasting published in the International Journal of Forecasting, containing some 10 different papers (Campbell and Lewis-Beck 2008). Our contribution in that special issue explored the question of whether our Jobs Model, off by only 1 percentage point in its 2004 forecast, was a simple product of data-mining (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2008).
Published Article/Book Citation
PS: Political Science & Politics, 41:4 (2008) pp. 687-690. DOI: 10.1017/S1049096508081262
Rights
Copyright 2008 American Political Science Association. Used by permission. http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=PSC
URL
http://ir.uiowa.edu/polisci_pubs/83
