Major Department

Business Analytics and Information Systems

College

College of Business

Degree

BBA (Bachelor of Business Administration)

Session and Year of Graduation

Spring 2019

Honors Major Advisor

Jennifer A. Blair

Thesis Mentor

Jeffrey Ohlmann

Abstract

Using team averages in various statistical categories, such as field goals attempted, field goals converted, free throws attempted, free throws converted, turnovers, and offensive rebounds, we estimate the probability of a possession in a game ending in a free-throw attempt, shot attempt, or turnover. By utilizing these estimated possession outcome probabilities, we create a Monte Carlo model that simulates every possession in a NCAA Basketball Tournament game. The output of the model estimates the points scored for each team, the point spread, the total points for the game, and the chance of each team winning.

Keywords

simulation, modeling, NCAA basketball tournament

Total Pages

14

Copyright

Copyright © 2019 Charles Ruff

COinS
 

URL

https://ir.uiowa.edu/honors_theses/322