Document Type

Article

Peer Reviewed

1

Publication Date

12-1985

Journal/Book/Conference Title

PS: Political Science & Politics

DOI of Published Version

10.1017/S1049096500021296

Abstract

One autumn out of four, election forecasting surpasses baseball as America's national pastime. Then, everyone wants to know who will win, and everyone has a guess. Now, with the ballots carefully counted, forecasters await their awards. Below, I evaluate the quality of a wide range of 1984 presidential and congressional forecasts. The evaluation proceeds from nonscientific to scientific approaches, although this distinction is sometimes blurred. To lower the level of suspense, I should say that some forecasts turned out to be quite good. By way of conclusion, I offer a set of rules for selecting a high-quality forecasting instrument.

Journal Article Version

Version of Record

Published Article/Book Citation

PS: Political Science & Politics, 18:1 (1985) pp. 53-62.

Rights

Copyright © 1985 American Political Science Association. Used by permission. http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=PSC

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URL

https://ir.uiowa.edu/polisci_pubs/39