Document Type

Article

Peer Reviewed

1

Publication Date

12-1985

Journal/Book/Conference Title

PS: Political Science & Politics

DOI of Published Version

10.1017/S1049096500021296

Start Page

53

End Page

62

Abstract

One autumn out of four, election forecasting surpasses baseball as America's national pastime. Then, everyone wants to know who will win, and everyone has a guess. Now, with the ballots carefully counted, forecasters await their awards. Below, I evaluate the quality of a wide range of 1984 presidential and congressional forecasts. The evaluation proceeds from nonscientific to scientific approaches, although this distinction is sometimes blurred. To lower the level of suspense, I should say that some forecasts turned out to be quite good. By way of conclusion, I offer a set of rules for selecting a high-quality forecasting instrument.

Journal Article Version

Version of Record

Published Article/Book Citation

PS: Political Science & Politics, 18:1 (1985) pp. 53-62.

Rights

Copyright © 1985 American Political Science Association. Used by permission. http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=PSC

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URL

https://ir.uiowa.edu/polisci_pubs/39